Bitcoin (BTC) closed out the week with a roughly 6% gain, but a split picture across onchain metrics, ETF flows, and macro risk factors leaves traders questioning whether buyers have the momentum to extend the move toward new local highs.
Spot and Futures Demand Absorbs Post-CPI Selling
Data from Hyblock showed the spot and futures cumulative volume delta recorded a $925 million net buying day for Bitcoin on Wednesday, as order book activity absorbed the entire post-CPI pullback in open interest and price rather than triggering further downside. Spot Bitcoin ETFs added $107.7 million in net inflows on Wednesday, marking the second consecutive positive day after $181 million in inflows on Tuesday.
Funding rates spent most of the past week between 0.10% and 0.22% before cooling sharply to 0.048%. Open interest fell 3.4% from Tuesday’s peak, while Bitcoin itself dropped only about 1.5% over the same stretch. That divergence points to leveraged longs stepping back from the post-CPI trade rather than outright liquidation, with the price having approached local range highs near $65,000 to $66,000.
Fear and Greed Index Stays Deep in ‘Fear’ Territory
Despite traction across spot, futures, and ETF markets, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index sat near 26, still in ‘Fear’ territory, even after Bitcoin bounced approximately 4.4% off its recent $62,100 low. For contrarian traders, positive flows holding up while sentiment remains depressed has historically produced more durable setups than rallies where optimism has already been priced in.
Macro Headwinds Remain Firmly in Place
An alternate reading of the data keeps risk firmly on the table. The US military conflict with Iran resumed during the week, pushing oil prices above $85. Market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike by September 2026 remain above 44%, adding another layer of caution for risk assets including Bitcoin.
Two Days of Buying Do Not Confirm a Trend Change
Buyers have returned to spot, futures and ETF markets, but two consecutive days of confirmed net buying are notable rather than decisive. Funding is cooling toward neutral, spot ETF flows remain negative on a year-to-date basis, and at the time of the analysis a cluster of long liquidations sat roughly 1.5% below Bitcoin’s price of approximately $63,200.
Bitcoin buyers have returned across multiple market structures, but geopolitical pressure from the US-Iran conflict, elevated oil prices, and persistent Fed rate hike risk mean the improving picture could unravel quickly without sustained spot-led demand to back it up.
