Bitcoin is trading inside the heaviest band of overhead supply on the chart, according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, which puts the zone between $77,100 and $80,200 and estimates that long-term holders sold as much as 539,000 BTC there earlier this year.
Bitcoin was around $77,220 on Sunday, at the lower edge of that band.
The Wall Directly Above
CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno described the $77,100 to $80,200 range as the nearest and heaviest onchain supply resistance above the current price. The reasoning is straightforward. Coins bought at a given level tend to be sold when price returns to it, and a large cluster of long-term holders already exited into that range once.
Moreno said a 24% rally over two weeks had stalled, with price moving between $76,000 and $82,000. ‘The trend is still constructive, but a wall of resistance stands in the way,’ he said in the report.
Three More Levels Above That
Clearing the supply band is only the first obstacle. CryptoQuant identifies three further levels.
The first is Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average, currently around $81,700. Moreno noted that bull markets have historically been treated as officially beginning when price closes above that average, and that a clear move above it would confirm one now. Short of that, he expects range-bound trading.
The second sits at $83,600, drawn from CryptoQuant’s 3x Metcalfe band, a model valuing the network by activity including active addresses. Moreno said the bands have marked significant levels before: the 3x band stood at $138,000 when Bitcoin reached its $126,000 all-time high in October 2025, and the 2x band was close to price when Bitcoin first touched $100,000 in December 2024.
The third is $88,700, the upper edge of CryptoQuant’s trader realized price model, which tracks the average price paid by active traders. ‘The upper band marks where trader profit-taking has historically emerged,’ Moreno said.
Where the Floor Sits
On the downside, Moreno points to the 200-day moving average around $70,000, then a deeper zone between $62,000 and $65,000 where long-term holders accumulated roughly 476,000 BTC this year.
That is the mirror image of the resistance argument. Coins bought in a range tend to find buyers again when price revisits it.
What This Adds to the Picture From Last Week
Glassnode data published on 10 September showed Bitcoin’s sell-side risk ratio falling from 16 to 7, among the lowest readings ever recorded, with long-term holders cutting their share of realised profit from 88% at the August peak to 47%. The conclusion at the time was that holders had largely stopped selling.
Both readings can be true at once, and together they describe the market better than either alone. Very few holders are selling today. But a large block of them already sold into the $77,100 to $80,200 range earlier in the year, and that supply sits overhead regardless of what anyone is doing this week.
Fewer sellers now is a floor. Coins already sold above are a ceiling. Bitcoin is currently sitting between the two, at the bottom of the ceiling.
There is a third figure worth placing alongside them. Glassnode calculated the collective breakeven price for US spot Bitcoin ETF investors at around $86,000, which falls between CryptoQuant’s $83,600 and $88,700 levels. Bitcoin has closed below that breakeven for 229 consecutive sessions.
Read This as a Map, Not a Forecast
None of this is a prediction, and CryptoQuant does not present it as one. Supply-based levels describe where selling has happened before, not where it will happen next, and models like the Metcalfe bands are estimates of value rather than measurements of it.
‘The overall picture remains bullish; Bitcoin simply needs to digest the overhead supply and break its valuation ceilings before a new leg up can develop,’ Moreno concluded.
