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Prediction Markets Now Out-Earn Crypto at Robinhood as Crypto Revenue Falls 38%

Robinhood posted its biggest quarter on record, but the growth came from event contracts rather than digital assets. Crypto transaction revenue has now fallen sharply for two consecutive quarters.

⏱ 3 min read Markets
Quick Summary
  • Crypto transaction revenue fell 38% year-over-year to $100 million, following a 47% drop to $134 million in the first quarter
  • Event contracts revenue rose more than tenfold to $156 million, overtaking crypto as a revenue line, as total revenue hit a record $1.31 billion
  • Robinhood logged $40 billion in crypto trading volume and pressed on with Robinhood Chain, tokenized stocks and the WonderFi acquisition

Robinhood delivered its strongest quarterly results on record in the second quarter, but the growth did not come from crypto. Cryptocurrency transaction revenue fell 38% year over year to $100 million, the second consecutive quarter of steep decline, while a business the brokerage launched far more recently quietly overtook it.

Record financials despite crypto headwinds

According to the company’s earnings report, released on Wednesday after the market closed, total revenue climbed 32% year over year to $1.31 billion while net income jumped 48% to $573 million. Diluted earnings came in at $0.62 per share against a consensus estimate of roughly $0.42.

Transaction-based revenue rose 44% to $776 million. The largest single contributor to that growth was event contracts, Robinhood’s prediction markets product, where revenue rose more than tenfold year over year to $156 million. That figure is now larger than the company’s entire crypto transaction revenue line.

The crypto decline is also not new. In the first quarter, crypto transaction revenue fell 47% year over year to $134 million. The second-quarter figure of $100 million is lower again in absolute terms, which points to a sustained cooling in retail crypto trading rather than a single weak quarter measured against a hot comparison period.

Crypto trading volume hits $40 billion

Despite the revenue decline, Robinhood logged $40 billion in total crypto trading volume during the quarter. That figure breaks down to $18 billion processed through the Robinhood app and $22 billion attributed to Bitstamp, the crypto exchange Robinhood acquired in June 2025.

The company did not publish a comparable volume figure for the same quarter a year earlier, so it is not possible to separate how much of the revenue drop reflects less trading and how much reflects thinner fees per dollar traded. Bitstamp, which was not part of the business for most of the year-ago period, also complicates any like-for-like comparison.

Digital asset expansion continues at pace

Robinhood pressed ahead on multiple crypto fronts during Q2:

  • Launched the public mainnet of Robinhood Chain, its proprietary blockchain network.
  • Introduced tokenized US stocks to eligible users across more than 120 countries.
  • Debuted Robinhood Earn, its first decentralized lending product.
  • Completed the acquisition of Canadian crypto platform WonderFi.
  • Announced plans to expand crypto offerings in the United Kingdom.
  • Reported that nearly 100,000 customer accounts are enrolled in Agentic Trading, with more than $100 million in assets under custody through that product.

Shares Slip After the Release as Analysts Trim Targets

Robinhood shares fell 3.15% during Wednesday’s session ahead of the release, according to Yahoo Finance data. The larger move came afterwards. The stock dropped roughly 3% in extended trading once the numbers landed, with attention focused on the crypto revenue decline and the company’s outlook on expenses, before recovering to trade near $90 in Thursday pre-market.

Analysts trimmed their expectations while keeping positive ratings. Needham lowered its price target from $123 to $120 and maintained a Buy rating, while Barclays cut its target from $122 to $105 and kept an Overweight rating.

The contrast between record overall results and a shrinking crypto line points to a shift in where Robinhood is generating growth. Prediction markets, not digital assets, drove the quarter, and the company’s crypto strategy has moved toward building infrastructure rather than harvesting trading fees. Bitstamp, WonderFi, Robinhood Chain and tokenized stocks all point in that direction.

For investors the read is uncomfortable but useful. One of the largest retail on-ramps into crypto is showing that retail trading activity, and the fees that come with it, has cooled for two quarters running. The counterweight is that Robinhood is still expanding into crypto aggressively while that revenue falls, which is not the behaviour of a company retreating from the asset class.

⚖️ Our Verdict 📉 Bearish Signal

Two consecutive quarters of steep decline in retail crypto transaction revenue point to cooling retail activity, and the market sold the stock on that line despite a record headline quarter. The counterweight is that Robinhood keeps investing heavily in crypto infrastructure, which suggests it reads the weakness as cyclical rather than structural.