Bitcoin’s bear market is over, according to a new report from Galaxy Digital’s research team.
Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, argues that the downturn bottomed in June 2026 and that Bitcoin has moved into an accumulation phase. Galaxy and Thorn both disclose that they hold Bitcoin.
The price trend
Bitcoin spent 44 weeks below its 50-week moving average before climbing back above it in September. As of the week ending 18 October, it had closed above that line for five weeks in a row.
Since 2011, Bitcoin has reclaimed the average after 20 or more weeks below it four times, the report says. Each time, it never closed more than 8.4% below the reclaim level over the following year, and eventually regained its previous all-time high.
A shallower downturn
This downturn saw Bitcoin fall 53% from its peak. Past bear markets saw drops of 77% to 93%.
The report says Bitcoin’s market value never fell below its realised value, a measure of the price at which coins last moved, which it calls a first for any bear market.
The June low came 916 days after the last halving. The three previous cycles bottomed between 777 and 912 days after a halving.
Who is buying and selling
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have added 87,000 BTC since the June low, according to the report. Their holdings fell only 11% from peak to trough, while the price fell 53%.
Coins that had not moved for five years or more have been sold at about 34,000 BTC a month this year, roughly half the 2024 pace.
Thorn’s outlook
Thorn said Bitcoin “has proven its ability to run to at least $125k, and we see no reason why it can’t retake that level.”
His warning sign would be a weekly close below the 50-week average, currently about $76,540, that is not regained within a month.
The other side
The report comes as ETF flows have turned negative for October. Hotter-than-expected inflation data has revived bets on another Federal Reserve rate rise, and 10-year Treasury yields hit 5.31% this month, their highest since 2007, making Bitcoin a harder sell against near risk-free bonds.
Bitcoin was trading around $80,000 at the time of writing, about 36% below its October 2025 high.
