Blockchain.com has applied to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for two licences that would let it offer prediction markets and crypto derivatives to customers in the US.
One is for a designated contract market, which would let it run a futures exchange for event contracts. The other is for a futures commission merchant, which would let it act as a derivatives broker. The company plans to serve both retail and institutional customers. It has not given a launch date, and the licences have not been granted.
Already live abroad
Outside the US, Blockchain.com already offers prediction markets through a partnership with Polymarket, and perpetual futures powered by Hyperliquid. It began offering prediction markets to some international customers earlier this year.
Chief executive Peter Smith told CNBC the aim is to let users manage digital assets, trade derivatives and bet on real-world events all in one place.
Why a federal licence matters
A CFTC licence offers protection the rest of the market lacks. State gambling regulators have sued prediction market operators, including Kalshi and Polymarket, arguing that event contracts are gambling that states have the right to police. A federally licensed exchange has a stronger claim to fall under CFTC rules instead.
That fight is not settled. The CFTC has sent the White House new rules to strengthen its authority over prediction markets, and the Supreme Court has shown interest in a dispute over whether event contracts count as federally regulated swaps.
A crowded queue
Blockchain.com is one of 12 companies to file for a designated contract market licence this year, according to CNBC. The CFTC has approved six new ones in 2026.
The prize is large if the forecasts hold. Bernstein analysts expect prediction markets to grow into a $10 trillion market by the end of the decade, generating billions in revenue for the firms that run them.
