A brutal July payrolls report landed on Friday, 7 August, and the Federal Reserve’s calculus shifted almost immediately. Employers cut 23,000 jobs last month, the first net employment loss since the pandemic-era recovery, and a sharp miss against the 95,000 gain economists had expected.
The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%, but only because more workers exited the labour force entirely. June’s payroll figure was revised down to 20,000 from an earlier reading of 57,000, and May’s count was nearly halved. The revisions compounded the headline shock.
Markets moved quickly. Treasury yields fell, the dollar slid 0.5%, and the CME FedWatch tool showed odds of a September rate hike dropping to 40% from 55% the prior day.
Bitcoin Price: What the Charts Say
Bitcoin was trading at $64,938 on Friday, up 1.06%, or $683, on the session after a green candle closed near its daily high. It has held close to that level since. Despite the bounce, the price remains compressed below two key moving averages.
Bitcoin peaked near $80,000 in mid-May before sliding to a July low around $58,000 in a clean downtrend through the spring. The 50-day exponential moving average now sits below the 200-day EMA, the formation known as a death cross. When the shorter-term average trades under the longer-term one, the medium-term trajectory still points downward. Since the July low, the decline has flattened into a sideways range, but price has not reclaimed either average.
The Relative Strength Index reads 54.6. RSI runs on a scale of 0 to 100: above 70 signals an overbought market, below 30 signals oversold. At 54.6, momentum is neutral, providing no fuel for a breakout but no sign of capitulation either.
Bull and Bear Cases
The bull case requires a daily close back above the 50-day EMA and through $66,000 resistance. That would open a run toward the 200-day EMA and the cloud top around $72,000. A softer Fed path and a weaker dollar supply a fundamental reason for such a push, but Bitcoin has failed to reclaim the 50-day line throughout the entire consolidation period.
The bear case centres on a break below $60,000, the cloud floor and a round-number magnet, which would confirm bears retain structural control and point prices back toward the July low of $58,000. A daily close below that level would reopen the spring downtrend in full.
Prediction Markets Stay Bearish
Sentiment on the prediction market Myriad offers little comfort for bulls. Traders are pricing in nearly 65% odds that Bitcoin falls back to $55,000 before any recovery toward $84,000. Those probabilities have barely shifted over the past week.
The $65,000 level is the current line in the sand. Above the 50-day EMA, the recent consolidation resembles base-building. Below $60,000, it resembles a bear flag.
The jobs report gave Bitcoin macro cover to rally. The death cross says it has not yet earned one.
