Bitcoin rose about 1.4% on Friday to near $82,800, after falling to $80,427 on Thursday, its lowest level since early September.
The bounce came as money kept leaving the US spot Bitcoin ETFs. The funds shed $484.9 million on Wednesday, their worst day since 25 June, and another $244 million on Thursday, a combined $729 million in two sessions.
The money is moving the other way
The outflows reverse the pattern that carried September. During that month’s nine-day inflow run, the funds took in $3.08 billion. Two sessions this week have given back almost a quarter of that.
Rates are the backdrop. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.32%, and minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting point to another rate rise before the end of the year. Bitcoin pays no yield, so higher returns on government bonds make it harder to justify holding.
Mood has cooled
The total crypto market is worth about $2.89 trillion, up roughly 2% on the day but down from more than $3 trillion a week ago, when Bitcoin was near its September high. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 56, a neutral reading, from 71 on 2 October.
The level to watch
Luke Deans of Bitwise Europe sees the $83,000 area as the first real test for the bounce. It roughly matches the average cost at which ETF investors bought in, and a previous high. Above that, Bitcoin’s September high of $87,354 is the level it would need to close above to show the uptrend has resumed.
On the daily chart, the broader trend has not broken. On shorter timeframes, the price remains below key averages, so the bounce has not yet turned into a recovery.
