Wall Street research firm Bernstein expects Bitcoin to stage a full recovery from its latest bear cycle, reclaim its 2025 high of $125,000 by late 2026, and reach $300,000 at the peak of the next cycle in 2029, according to a research report published Wednesday.
Base and bull cases both converge at $125,000 first
Under both its base and bull scenarios, Bernstein places Bitcoin back at $125,000 before the end of 2026. From there the two paths diverge: the base case projects $150,000 by mid-2027 and a cycle peak of around $300,000 in 2029, while the bull case puts Bitcoin at $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 in 2029. Bernstein maintained its longer-term target of roughly $1 million by 2033 under both scenarios.
The nearest of those numbers is also the most demanding. Bitcoin was trading around $80,500 on Thursday, so reclaiming $125,000 by late 2026 implies a gain of roughly 55% inside about four months.
The firm noted that Bitcoin had already gained 28% in the 10 days prior to the report, after falling approximately 50% from its October 2025 high. Bernstein attributed the shallower drawdown, compared to the 75% to 90% declines seen in previous cycles, to increased participation by institutional investors and corporate Bitcoin buyers providing stronger downside support.
Cycle framework tied to the halving
Bernstein’s price path is anchored to Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycles, which the firm links to the halving event that reduces miner rewards roughly every four years. The firm divides each cycle into four phases: breakout, hype, drawdown, and accumulation.
Price targets are derived by comparing Bitcoin to the marginal cost of production, defined as the estimated cost for the least efficient miners to produce new coins. ‘We assume that the price-to-marginal cost multiple will behave in a similar manner to previous 4-year cycles,’ Bernstein analysts said.
Under the base case, that multiple compresses from 1.4 times at the $125,000 peak in 2025 to 1.25 times at a projected $300,000 peak in 2029, and further to about 1.2 times at $1 million in 2033.
Strategy price target cut despite maintained Outperform rating
Bernstein also addressed Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, which holds 840,447 BTC, equivalent to roughly 4% of Bitcoin’s maximum supply of 21 million coins. The analysts kept their ‘Outperform’ rating on Strategy but reduced their MSTR price target to $350 from $450, citing accelerated equity dilution and an updated Bitcoin cycle outlook. MSTR closed at $126.83 on Tuesday, up 3.4% on the day, according to Yahoo Finance.
Bernstein said a recovery in Bitcoin’s price, combined with a rebound in Strategy’s Stream preferred stock, ticker STRC, to around $100, could enable the company to resume aggressive Bitcoin purchases after selling around 7,000 BTC in 2026. STRC closed at $97.15 on Tuesday, according to Yahoo Finance.
Capital-market risk flagged for Strategy
Separate analysis from Regime Intelligence cautioned that Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury may be less exposed to a crypto market crash than to a sustained loss of capital-market access, a scenario that could threaten the company’s ability to cover roughly $1.76 billion in annual obligations without liquidating BTC holdings.
