Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts believes Bitcoin is moving through the latter half of its current bear market, with downside momentum showing early signs of fading, though he stressed the downturn is not over yet.
A ‘Typical Garden-Variety’ Bear Market
Speaking on Cointelegraph’s Trade Secrets, Coutts described the current BTC price action as a ‘typical garden-variety bear market.’ Bitcoin is trading around the $63,000 mark, approximately 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,100.
‘I think we’re getting through most of the bear market action. It’s still not over, clearly. But you know, I think we’re approaching at least the second half,’ Coutts said.
He noted that Bitcoin’s volatility has fallen by roughly 50% compared to the prior market cycle, suggesting the current drawdown may prove less damaging than previous bear phases. Even so, he cautioned that markets rarely follow historical templates cleanly, adding: ‘They just sort of do their own thing. And at the moment, all the trend indicators are obviously bearish.’
Bullish Divergence Emerging on Longer Timeframes
Despite the bearish backdrop, Coutts said he is beginning to spot early technical signals that selling pressure is softening. ‘I’m starting to see a bullish divergence appear on the longer time frames on momentum. So that’s just telling me that the acceleration, or should I say, the negative momentum is decelerating, but that doesn’t mean that we’re out of this bear market from a technical perspective at all,’ he said.
Coutts also pushed back against narratives attributing Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter decline solely to tightening global liquidity. He argued that weakening onchain fundamentals contributed significantly: ‘So onchain demand, which definitely drives price and is somewhat correlated to things like global liquidity and the business cycle, they started to deteriorate as well.’
Coutts Sets $200K to $250K Target, Doubts $1M by 2030
When asked about the $1 million Bitcoin price targets promoted by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood for 2030, Coutts expressed measured scepticism. His own models had previously pointed to roughly $1 million by 2032 or 2033, contingent on the scale of monetary expansion between now and then.
For the nearer term, he is more confident: ‘I’m more comfortable with a forecast in the next sort of two to three years that Bitcoin should get to sort of $200,000 to 250,000.’ Beyond that window, he said, it is ‘very hard to say.’
Coutts also flagged the emerging role of artificial intelligence as a potential wildcard for Bitcoin’s longer-term demand profile, questioning whether AI agents spinning up wallets would store value in BTC the same way humans have.
Quantum Computing a Growing Risk by 2027
On longer-horizon risks, Coutts warned that the Bitcoin community needs to take decisive steps by 2027 to address the quantum computing threat. Because Bitcoin is a decentralised network, he estimated it could take five years to implement a major protocol upgrade. ‘If there isn’t really firm movement on this, this will become an increasingly talked-about issue for the network,’ he said. He added that developers who dismiss quantum concerns are on the ‘wrong side of this.’
