Bitcoin’s so-called ‘cycle peak buyers’ could already be pointing toward the next bear-market floor, according to fresh onchain analysis from Glassnode, with realized losses among one-to-two-year holders beginning to cool after spiking above $75 million on a 30-day rolling basis.
The Metric Glassnode Is Watching Most Closely
Cryptovizart, the pseudonymous lead research analyst at onchain analytics platform Glassnode, shared the findings in an X post on Friday, flagging realized loss volume in USD for the one-to-two-year holder cohort as a key bear-market timing tool.
The coins now registering losses on the blockchain last moved between July 2024 and July 2025, a window during which BTC/USD climbed from roughly $62,800 to $107,000. That price appreciation placed the majority of investors in this cohort underwater on their positions after the subsequent pullback.
‘One of the metrics I watch most closely when trying to gauge a bear market’s end is, Realized Loss volume in USD by the 1-2 year holders,’ Cryptovizart wrote.
The analyst noted that as price underperformance drags on, this group of hodlers tends to accelerate their selling, crystallising losses progressively. However, history suggests this dynamic has a ceiling.
‘Historically, bear markets have not found durable footing until this specific group exhausts its sell pressure.’
The 30-day simple moving average of realized losses for this cohort recently peaked above $75 million before beginning to roll over, a development Cryptovizart described as potentially significant.
‘When the 30D-SMA of their realized loss cools and rolls over, it has often been among the clearest early signals that the heaviest distribution phase is behind the market,’ the post added.
‘Worth watching closely.’
$69,000 Emerges as the Next Critical BTC Battleground
Realized loss data is not the only onchain signal pointing toward a potential macro floor. In its latest edition of The Week Onchain newsletter, Glassnode separately flagged the aggregate cost basis of Bitcoin short-term holders as the bulls’ next meaningful resistance level. That cost basis sits at approximately $69,000, a figure that also coincides with the all-time highs established during the 2021 bull market cycle, creating a dense zone of potential selling pressure. Glassnode’s newsletter noted that the first encounter with the $69,000 zone is likely to provoke a strong market reaction, because participants closest to breaking even are also the most motivated to sell.
‘A convincing reclaim would give the recovery room to run; a rejection keeps the range intact.’
That framing cuts both ways. Neither Glassnode analysis calls a bottom: Cryptovizart described the realized-loss reversal as an early signal worth watching rather than a confirmation, and the newsletter treats $69,000 as a test with two possible outcomes, not a floor.
July 2026 remains a period of heightened scrutiny for Bitcoin market participants watching for the definitive close of the current bear phase.
