Strategy’s pivot from hoarding Bitcoin to selling it, in order to fund dividends on its preferred stock, has ‘muddied’ Bitcoin’s near-term prospects, according to a new Standard Chartered note that nonetheless urges investors to look past it. The bank is standing by its end-2026 Bitcoin price target of $100,000, calling the treasury giant’s disposals ‘mostly noise rather than a signal’ of Bitcoin’s medium-term direction.
The assessment, published Friday by Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick, arrives as the machine that made Strategy the largest corporate Bitcoin holder shows real signs of strain.
Strategy’s recent selling spree
Between June 29 and July 5, Strategy sold 3,588 BTC for approximately $216 million to cover preferred-share dividends and top up a cash reserve, leaving the company holding 843,775 BTC. That larger disposal followed a smaller sale of just 32 BTC in early June that triggered Strategy’s worst week since 2022.
The sales represent a significant shift for a company that built its identity around a ‘never sell’ stance on Bitcoin. Strategy now holds more than 4% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist, but its BTC stack, bought for $63.7 billion, is worth around $54 billion at current prices. The firm booked an $8.3 billion loss on its digital assets last quarter, almost all of it unrealized.
The mNAV problem
For years, Strategy operated a self-reinforcing machine: as long as its shares traded well above the value of its Bitcoin holdings, a premium measured by the metric mNAV, it could issue stock, buy more BTC, and lift both its own valuation and Bitcoin’s price. That premium has now evaporated.
Standard Chartered puts mNAV at around 1 on an enterprise-value basis. Equity-based tracker BitcoinTreasuries places the stock at around 0.7 times the value of its Bitcoin on a diluted basis, a discount of roughly one third.
Backing the STRC dividend
With accumulation stalled, Strategy is repurposing its Bitcoin as collateral for STRC, a perpetual preferred stock known internally as ‘Stretch’ that carries a 12% annual dividend and has approximately $10 billion outstanding, according to Standard Chartered. The shares are designed to trade near their $100 par value, but slid to an intraday low of $71.25 on June 26 after the company disclosed its first Bitcoin sale earlier that month.
Under a ‘BTC Monetization Program’ unveiled on June 29, Strategy can raise up to $1.25 billion by selling Bitcoin to keep dividends funded. Kendrick wrote that price action since the initial disclosure suggests ‘the market has yet to be fully convinced of this pivot.’
Kendrick argued that clear communication is ‘key to reassuring markets that wholesale selling is unlikely,’ which should pull STRC back toward its $100 par value and ease pressure on Bitcoin. He noted the reserve behind the dividend now holds $2.55 billion, almost a year and a half of coverage. Because the stock is ‘heavily over-collateralised’ by the Bitcoin behind it, effective signaling could remove the need for Strategy to sell any more at all.
Where Bitcoin and market bets stand
Bitcoin was trading around $64,440 on Friday, up 3.8% on the week but down 42% over the past year and approximately 49% below its October 2025 record of $126,080, according to CoinGecko data. The price has since softened, trading near $62,800 at the time of publication.
Prediction market Myriad, a platform owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, puts the probability of Strategy holding more than 1 million BTC before 2027 at around 13%, suggesting traders are doubtful the company’s buying programme will resume at full pace anytime soon.
