A key Bitcoin onchain indicator has flashed its first ‘buy’ signal in nearly four years, drawing direct comparisons to the November 2022 bear market bottom, though analysts caution that BTC price could still push lower before any lasting reversal takes hold.
Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio Returns to Negative Territory
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr., a CryptoQuant contributor, confirmed in a Friday blog post that the Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio has re-entered negative territory for the first time in close to four years. The metric measures the proportion of the Bitcoin supply that last moved at a profit versus a loss.
According to Adler, the ratio dropped deep into negative territory before crossing back above the signal threshold on a rebound, triggering ‘BUY’ signals across several sessions in late June and early July 2026.
‘This is the first buy trigger since November 2022, which was the bottom of the previous bear cycle.’
Adler was careful to frame the signal in context: UTXO Supply Ratio cues do not confirm a macro bottom has arrived, but tend to occur ‘near cyclical lows.’ Confirmation, he explained, would require the ratio to hold above zero alongside rising prices. A return into negative territory without price support would represent the bearish scenario.
Supply in Loss Has Not Yet Peaked
A critical missing component involves the volume of Bitcoin supply held at a loss, which has not yet reached levels typical of past bear market capitulations. Adler forecast that the 90-day simple moving average of supply in loss should reach its bear-market reversal target within two months.
‘Until then, it is more accurate to treat capitulation as a process rather than a completed fact,’ he wrote.
Fellow Analyst: Signals Will Not ‘Stop BTC From Going Lower’
CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost also flagged a potential market inflection point this week in a Quicktake blog post published on Wednesday. Darkfost noted that because the metric depends on UTXO profit and loss, it can fire during either sharp drops or sharp rises, adding nuance to the reading.
‘This won’t stop BTC from going lower, but we now have several signals pointing to seller exhaustion. The next step is a renewal of demand, and that could take some time.’
In terms of cyclicality, Darkfost said it ‘wouldn’t be inconsistent to think that the end of this bear market could be approaching,’ but demand renewal remains the missing piece required to sustain any bullish recovery.
Q3 Still Eyed as Potential Bottom Window
BTC price expectations among analysts continue to favour a bear-market floor materialising in Q3 2026 or later, consistent with broader macro bottom forecasts previously reported.
