Bitcoin reclaimed the $61,000 level after a sharply disappointing US jobs report rattled equity markets and reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, with onchain data simultaneously flashing signals that sellers may be exhausted.
Jobs Miss Hits Nasdaq, Lifts Bitcoin
US non-farm payrolls rose by only 57,000 in June, badly missing the consensus forecast of 113,000, according to Yahoo Finance. The US Labor Department also revised April and May figures downward by a combined 74,000 jobs. The Nasdaq 100 Index erased gains accumulated over the three prior sessions, while Bitcoin distanced itself from its Wednesday low of $57,750.
The weak labor data pushed market-implied odds of a Fed rate hike by September down to 54% from 64% the prior day, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The Federal Reserve balance sheet stands at $6.73 trillion, though its mandate permits $40 billion in monthly short-term Treasury and bond purchases. Reduced inflationary pressure widens the path toward accelerated liquidity injection, which historically benefits scarce assets.
Gold Rebounds, Oil Falls on Iran Talks Progress
Gold prices recovered ground on Thursday after accumulating roughly 8% in losses over the prior two weeks, signalling investor anticipation of looser monetary conditions. WTI crude oil stabilized below $70 per barrel after the Qatar Foreign Ministry cited ‘positive progress’ in the latest round of US-Iran discussions, easing supply-risk premiums and opening room for further economic stimulus.
AI Sector Rout Fuels Rotation Thesis
Chipmakers and storage hardware names led equity declines on Thursday. Shares of SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital, and Applied Materials each posted intraday losses of 9% or more. Traders are watching whether capital exiting overheated AI names will flow toward Bitcoin and gold, potentially driving a near-term BTC recovery toward $70,000.
Part of Bitcoin’s recent softness has been attributed to disappointment surrounding Strategy. Despite an 8% net leverage ratio and $56.8 billion in enterprise value, the company accelerated MSTR share issuance to retire debt and cover dividends on preferred stocks, diluting existing holders.
Onchain Data Points to Cycle Bottom
CryptoQuant analyst gaah_im noted that Bitcoin’s realized profit-to-loss ratio has fallen to its lowest level since 2022. Crucially, the net percentage of supply in profit relative to total supply has turned negative, a condition the analyst says has historically marked cycle bottoms with ‘extreme precision.’ Bitcoin’s current price sits roughly two months after its rejection at $82,500.
