Bitcoin (BTC) touched the $65,500 level on Monday after US Vice President JD Vance confirmed the Strait of Hormuz remains open and cited “encouraging progress” in talks with an Iranian delegation in Switzerland. That geopolitical relief triggered a surge in bullish leveraged demand, pushing a key market indicator to its highest point in nearly three weeks. The optimism proved short-lived: in the days since, Bitcoin has slipped back toward $62,000 as persistent ETF outflows and a cautious macro backdrop reasserted themselves.
Funding rate climbs to 7%, a near three-week peak
The Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized funding rate jumped to 7% on Monday, according to data from Laevitas. While that reading sits within the neutral 6% to 12% band, the move signals growing conviction among long-side traders. Adding to the upbeat tone, Brent crude oil fell to $77.50 per barrel, its lowest price since March, which analysts linked to easing Middle East tensions.
Despite the positive signals, derivatives markets told a more cautious story. Demand for put (sell) options outpaced call (buy) instruments by more than two to one on Deribit on Monday, with the put-to-call ratio leaning bearish since Friday, reversing the bullish options trend from the prior week.
Order books and macro: A split picture
On the structural side, bids on major exchanges exceeded offers by $12 million on Monday, reversing the weekend order-book imbalance, according to CoinGlass aggregated data. That buying depth suggests Bitcoin’s inability to hold the $65,000 level does not necessarily reflect underlying weakness.
Broader financial markets, however, sent conflicting signals. The Nasdaq 100 Index declined roughly 1% as artificial intelligence stocks weakened. SpaceX (SPCX US) shares dropped 13% after the company announced plans to raise additional debt despite holding more than $100 billion in cash, stoking fears about the sector’s path to profitability.
Gold traded down 0.9%, while investors simultaneously sold US government bonds, pushing Treasury yields higher. Rising US Treasury yields indicate investors are demanding greater compensation to hold government debt, a dynamic driven either by inflation fears or concerns about US fiscal expansion. The simultaneous selloff across stocks, bonds, and gold points to a broad preference for cash, creating a challenging backdrop for risk assets including Bitcoin.
Strategy concerns ease, but ETF outflows remain a drag
Shares of Strategy (MSTR US) were trading 13% below the $64.1 billion cost of its 847,363 BTC holding, raising investor concerns about potential reserve sales. Those fears subsided after Strategy announced a $300 million addition to its USD cash reserve, alongside an acquisition of 520 BTC.
The more persistent headwind for Bitcoin is the ongoing weakness in US-listed spot ETF flows. According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $228 million in net outflows in the prior week, extending what has now become six consecutive weeks of redemptions. That sustained institutional selling limits the upside case for a short-term move toward $70,000, analysts noted.
Bottom line
Monday’s combination of a rising funding rate, a positive order-book delta, and softer oil prices pointed to genuine near-term optimism among leveraged traders. But with spot ETF outflows persisting, options markets skewing bearish, and broader markets retreating toward cash, that optimism failed to hold, and Bitcoin has since drifted lower rather than building toward a clean breakout above $70,000.
